There’s been no update, first of all to many loyal readers to say sorry. I have been in the habit of keeping a diary since child years. I have been writing all the time, and most of them never have been published. Many of them can only just see for themselves, plus some of them aren’t easy release a hastily if indeed they haven’t considered it obviously. Weibo @ Wanhui Dovey is currently up to date more diligently, with a great deal of chatter and intermittent considering, including various applying for grants digital money, life and the world. In the new 12 months and new era, we will try to put systematic things on the official account, which may not be directly related to the encrypted digital currency, similar to the bubble, gender and the best part written before-to you of the second sex. but it always has something regarding the core tendencies in the framework of our big period.
Within the last week of 2019, I viewed old pics with my children (below is a phrase from my grandfather when he graduated from university in a decade), discussed growth and education, and shared how to understand beauty, exhibit love, and become a warm and kind person with a home and a distance in his heart. Just as I published “Indie Personality and Free Soul” on the first page of my diary once i entered college, my 30-year-old anticipations for the new decade have not changed: look at the world, read history, argue the truth, and find freedom.
I would like to intercept an integral part of my diary written on Sept 2, 2019 expressing my overview of days gone by and my eyesight for the new period. The next body can be an evaluation of the fantastic age group of Bitcoin, which originates from a fireside discussion with brother Xiong Yue at the Jiannan Meeting: “the world is so messy, Bitcoin is not stressed.” Because of Zhihong for editing the core content of the dialogue. The Dovey:20 era is destined to be the golden age of Bitcoin. The article is relatively long, and all I read is true love, and finally there is a bitcoin 11th birthday “vibrant egg” Enjoy.
Excerpt from personal diary “Adult of our Generation, Little tail of the changing times”:
Our generation of young Chinese are actually too lucky to feel the labor pains in the early stages of reform and opening up. They was raised in the twenty years of China’s speedy development and 10% GDP development.
High school-college swept up with the fantastic era of mobile Internet (still be sure you get the first iPhone3 from college), and graduated to meet up with the nice era of nationwide entrepreneurship. 10% GDP development means doubling the entire socio-economic level every seven years, something that young People in america can’t imagine because they’re generally poorer than their parents’ generation (stagnant income rising debt, disproportionately soaring education, growth and health care costs).
No one can eliminate inertia that he is the center of the small social universe, especially in the Western Protestantism which instilled “man will prevail over nature” after the commercial trend. But every individual is simply a disordered particle in regulations of many the times. No-one can stick to the sidelines watching the wheel of background rolling. The days are such as a huge silencer. We are able to never hear the sound of four proportions in three proportions.
China has long benefited from backwardness: since it is backward, it gets the inspiration and space to learn, and since it lags at the rear of, it gets the joy of progress and change. The most important thing is that because of backwardness, people of this era see the hope of “becoming that kind of person”. Hope is everything for a generation.
When the wheel of history runs over quietly, the ants crawling on the wheel still move forward bravely.
No matter how the wheel of history moves ahead, I sincerely hope that it will continually be there.
Many friends have observed my science popularization on Twitter, and Bitcoin without Borders Milk is one of my core missions. Furthermore, my full-time job is to purchase encrypted digital money, which really is a serious investment job overseas. Like general capital raising, my job is to find value depressions that remain in their first stages and try to avoid value traps. The home industry is strangely divided into “mining circle”, “chain circle” and “coin circle”. I don’t know which circle I am, so many people ask. I often joke that I is an “alternate investment in the super-sovereign world.” Because the French currency is a sovereign currency, VC is a choice investment. Today, I would like to talk about the existing situation of the industry in a far more noncommercial, calm and real way. It isn’t only the existing situation at home, but also what the existing situation in the world is similar to.
A number of the basic things that individuals have been used to within the last few decades changes a great deal: for example, we used to believe that China had the biggest people in the world and a great country, but only 11 mil people were given birth to in 2019. The amount of newborns has fallen by 6 million in the past two years, which can be said to be falling off a cliff. If the industrial structure, medical insurance, social security, pensions and so on cannot reasonably keep up with this demographic change, the entire economic situation of China in the future will be a great challenge. We always think that most people at the age of 60 and 65 should retire and take care of their grandchildren. When I went to the streets of Japan this time, I saw many grandparents in their 70s and 80s traveling by themselves, and folks over 60 needed to work to be able to survive. This is actually the future of the aging population.
Before, the start-up funding was filled with money, and the emergence of Softbank Corp. Eyesight Fund was equal to 100 more VC with an even of just one 1 billion US dollars. We often joke that there used to be To B to C or to VC, and today we still need to SB (Softbank). However, not all money makes sense money, stupid money to create bubbles, clever money to pick up cabbages. When Softbank Corp. threw 100 billion dollars around, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway cash position reached an all-time high. The recent WeWork scandal is a case in point. In the long run, not only was the list unsuccessful, it cost vast amounts of dollars to send away the defeated CEO, and lastly offered itself an offer at the existing valuation of 1/5. So… The first-and second-tier capital marketplaces were jittery, and abruptly everyone ran out of money.
AMERICA dominated by gold in the 20th century.
Let’s check out the picture above: we are actually residing in an extremely special period where there’s been no world-class battle to get more than 50 years. The yellowish line is precious metal, and the purchasing power of precious metal is weighed against that of other mainstream sovereign currencies, like the dollar, mark, Swiss franc, and the red line is the yen. As you can see, with inflation, the purchasing power of sovereign currencies continues to decline. I remember very clearly that when I was a child, I ate McDonald’s chicken wings for less than five yuan a set. McDonald’s has already been an extremely conservative business in home price increases.
Then let’s understand this picture. Yellow metal is what we’ve always called a super-sovereign money in the traditional economic circle. Do you know why the US dollar has now become such a world currency? there is a very key reason. During World War II, the United States entered the war at the latest, and the United States had a very large amount of industrial production capacity. The United States has made a lot of aircraft, tanks and missiles sold to Britain, France and Russia. Probably one of the most famous fighter planes sold by america to Britain at that time was the P40, which could buy 25 such aircraft per ton of gold. Britain used 50,000 such aircraft in World War II, which is equivalent to 2000 tons of gold paid to the United States by Britain alone. At the end of the 19th century, America’s gold reserves rose from more than 200 tons to 20,000 tons after World War II, a 100-fold increase. After World War II, the United States quickly accounted for more than half of the world’s gold reserves. If you have a super-sovereign money, what we should call a store of value, you may as well connect the financial system of the whole world to the dollar. America’s gold reserves were the foundation of the Bretton Woods system, and of course the dollar was decoupled from gold because of a series of geopolitical and economic disputes. Because of the dominant position of the US dollar in the world economy and trade, as well as the military and political status of the United States, even if it is decoupled from precious metal, the US money has become the most suitable choice for the world’s money.
It is common for the united states to settle the legal currency by law, and the matter is dependant on the confidence of the country’s economic development and tax ability. In the picture above, Turkey, Brazil, Argentina and Colombia, why do these countries use bitcoin digital currency to stand at the top of the world? it is very simple that these countries have confronted their own legal currency crisis more or less in the past decade. Based on the consumer price index, prices increased 1.7% in Germany and 1.9% in america from 2018 to 2019. In lots of countries, consumer prices have increased even more: 11 % in Nigeria, 20 % in Turkey and 47 % in Argentina. One extreme example is Venezuela. Prices increased 2300000% in 2018-hyperinflation is so severe that savings cannot be achieved. The money began to evaporate hours after it arrived in the bank account. Local people need to exchange their Verinella local currency for essentials and food as quickly as possible: Venezuela, the richest country in the 20th century, has gone to hell. Argentina reached the level of developed countries in the last century, but later it was with the turmoil that resulted in severe inflation and dropped back again to developing countries.
This isn’t a peaceful and comfortable era, and we are lucky to reside in a peaceful and stable country. Beneath the right leadership, China’s GDP is continuing to grow by almost 10% a 12 months over the past three decades, which means that our standard of living doubles every seven years, a mass that has never happened in the world.
If Huawei’s US buck bank account is frozen.
I heard that the price of pork in China has risen by 100% in the past 12 months. can you guarantee that there is an exchange intermediary that I can buy a jin of pork with 100 models of value tomorrow? Now people across the world are fretting about this issue, not simply China’s.
If you go to Argentina or Venezuela, you might be able to buy a jin of pork for a hundred yuan one night time, and you may only buy one or two pork for a hundred yuan the next day. This is such an exaggeration. I have a lot of friends in Venezuela and Argentina, they say they never dare to save money, because saving money means that the money can essentially be converted into waste materials paper the very next day. If they need it milk bread, each of them have to carry the money in their schoolbags.
Countries with family member stability, strong sovereignty and strong economic power are also making a risk assessment: will the buck collapse at some point? Because at present, in addition to gold, there are also a big quantity of US buck property in the central banks of various countries.
We can see that Russia’s platinum reserves are rising rapidly. Since 2018, Russia’s proportion of US personal debt and other buck property in its central standard bank reserves has fallen rapidly, which of course has a lot to do with geopolitics, but most importantly, when the United States weaponizes the buck, he can do a very easy thing: because now central banks round the world have to set up accounts with the Federal government Reserve. It is equivalent to saying that I am the central standard bank of China. If I want to open an account with the Federal Reserve to switch US dollars, the Federal government Reserve can do a very important factor and freeze your accounts anytime and anywhere. For instance, america is considering freezing Huawei’s accounts, which is totally operable. The hegemony of the buck is undoubtedly an awful thing that he can freeze Huawei’s accounts or even his central bank-account. This is exactly what we call an individual point of failing, to create single point failing. The risks of centralization are obvious.
De-dollarization is a major trend.
We can now take a look at the continued decline in foreign exchange reserves of US dollar resources in central banking institutions. The euro and RMB have essentially replaced the decrease in US buck assets.
Like a central standard bank, he must also avoid being subverted by centralised risks. if you invest, you need to have a portfolio strategy, which is a diversification of investment assets, and you need to look for an asset with low correlation. As a central mother, his assets, the so-called reserves, have always been gold, once anchored and gold-anchored US dollars as the main reserves. Well, now they also have to consider how to make a diversified configuration.
This is also what we call gold reserves, there is a lot of room for growth. In the past, we only had gold, a so-called super-sovereign currency. So we now see that Bitcoin has gradually become a possible super-sovereign currency after the experience of the past 10 years. Let’s not say whether it is money or not, because the attribute of money itself is very complicated. It is definitely a super-sovereign value store, and it is the only choice for super-sovereign value storage space. Due to other resources such as homes, land, gold, etc., sovereign says can confiscate and seize them if necessary without any reason. Bitcoin is the first time to technically guarantee the beautiful vision of “the sanctity of private property”. Everyone wants to get something from their hard work and keep their value. There is also an operational benefit to the “super-sovereignty” of Bitcoin. If Venezuelans find that this place has converted into purgatory, if their prosperity exists by means of Bitcoin, they can quietly take their prosperity with them and choose to visit another better sovereign country.
We’ve been discussing the admittance of establishments, in fact, the majority of individuals who enter the marketplace are still the institutions which come directly into trade, not the establishments that shell out the dough. I myself separate establishments into two categories: the ones that benefit from volatility, such because so many Wall Street establishments, and the ones that benefit from “non-volatility”. Central banking institutions are the last mentioned, whose monetary procedures are made to reduce financial volatility and curb inflation, which is the best players of Bitcoin in the foreseeable future.
Be positive about DECP, and become more optimistic about Bitcoin.
A stable digital legal currency like DECP is of great significance. For example, let M0 return strongly, so the central loan provider can straight touch the elasticity of the amount of money source, make monetary plan “programmable”, make taxes policy highly enforceable and so on. It will also be of great significance in cross-border payment and settlement in the international community, especially in developing countries in the future. The central idea at Zuckerberg’s Libra hearing was to convince Congress that the facebook issued Libra, because China’s yuan and China’s legal physique, the yuan, could threaten the future dominance of the dollar. So he said: “If America doesn’t innovate, our financial leadership is not guaranteed.” means that the financial hegemony of the United States may not be guaranteed, although in my opinion, it has nothing to do with whether or not to do Libra.
We can see that with the geopolitical discord and the downward pattern of the large financial cycle, many of our financial indicators are very much like those of the late 1930s. What happened after the late 1930s, World War II. We are now at a very sensitive economic inflection point. In the past, when every major global financial crisis emerged, the central loan provider could continue steadily to cut interest levels. The central bank’s interest cut is an extremely powerful financial weapon, however the Western european Central Loan provider and the lender of Japan have cut no more, which is the same as putting profit the lender, and I must give the loan provider money. If the global financial turmoil comes again, we can not think of any financial weapons that the central loan provider will have.
So when we speak to a great deal of established establishments on Wall Road, most of us imagine that another recession may not be the economic crisis of some kind of asset. Because we know that 2008 was the real estate subprime problems, and then the Asian financial problems was as a result of Asian stock market crash, due to Thai money crash etc. What if another global economical problems will not result from a certain group of assets? imagine if it is a thorough money crisis? This probability is not without. In addition to the countries mentioned previously, imagine if the euro collapses, in addition to the fact they are all in a French currency crisis to varying degrees? There are many cracks in the European Union, whether it is alliance politics or economic integration. Brexit is a chicken feather.
With the superposition of the three cycles, the 1920s was the golden age of Bitcoin.
So when it comes to our industry, I personally think that the next 10 years will be a superimposed decade of three major cycles:
The debt cycle is what we call credit cycle.
The big cycle of sovereign currencies, because of the sovereign monetary system, our Bretton Woods system is now the 75th anniversary, in fact, no large monetary system has lasted for a hundred years. The global monetary system may be the superposition of cycles to change dynasties.
The next two Bitcoin halving cycles.
The superposition of these three large cycles will lead to the golden age of Bitcoin, which is a great opportunity and a challenge. Bitcoin, who was simply born within the last world financial meltdown, must also experience the financial meltdown for the very first time in his life.
We say bitcoin is not anxious. Why Bitcoin is not stressed? many people may worry to start to see the price every day to state why Bitcoin hasn’t risen yet and whether you will see no market when it’s halved. We old leeks often say a rise or fall of 50% is horizontal. Because weighed against the initial volatility, the existing volatility is actually nothing, and the common volatility of Bitcoin is even less than that of several commodities.
Conformity trading / lightning network / strong main network, the basics of bitcoin are receiving better and better.
You can view the admittance of large compliance agencies, the largest of which is the foreign Bakkt. The trading volume of Bakkt, a compliant digital currency trading platform owned by the New York Stock Exchange, has skyrocketed, of course, along with a collapse in trading volume on other platforms. When it first came out, Bakkt should have only a few bitcoins a day, and now it has the highest daily 5000BTC turnover.
We need to know that the first batch of entry institutions are mainly trading institutions, and they will help to find the market structure and price, that is, price discovery does better. For example, Bakkt has US $120 million insurance and a very mature commission rate model, which is such a FCM, that you may have never exchanged on exchanges in many money circles. Forex might be able to buy a merchant account, to buy an Identification credit card, and then can trade, they aren’t allowed.
The basics of Bitcoin are actually improving and better, and the computing power is now increasingly more dispersed. The surge of transactions on the string, in reality, has surpassed the international Alipay-PayPal, is going to meet up with MasterCard and VISA. Miners’ purchase fees also have exceeded $1 billion. The miners’ income is split into two parts, you are the stop praise, of the mining itself, and the other is the handling fee. Now the fee income has exceeded 1 billion US dollars.
Bitfinex has also accepted lightning networks. As for wallets, the mainstream wallets in China, including currency letter, Cobo and Hu Fu, have already fully supported the Lightning Network several months ago. Now bitfinex is starting to support it. In the future, as the first streaming exchange to accept the lightning network, it will go to other drive exchanges to support it, that is, it’ll be very convenient that you can transfer money between various wallets and exchanges in the foreseeable future.
If someone tells you that Bitcoin is unsatisfied again, you can throw the picture in his face. Finished . about Lightning Network is to make Bitcoin very quickly without changing it.
Because people need to find out exactly what will become silver? Things that do not change can be silver. If silver could be oxidized as easily as copper and iron, it could not become silver. Because an ounce of silver I found in Egypt three thousand years back is still used as an ounce of silver. Only things that can’t be transformed, or things that are difficult to improve, can become a store of value. The past 10 years have experienced many price fluctuations, exchange theft, industry big v ripping each other, huge defections, ABCDEFG bifurcations and so on that are more fascinating than movies. But Bitcoin is still the same Bitcoin, 21 million Bitcoins will not change because of bifurcations, 10 minutes a prevent will not become faster as a result of new miner, regardless of the network from 3G to 4G, the Bitcoin network is always stable and never crashes.
Most importantly, the “immutable” nature of bitcoin is determined by the PoW system created by Satoshi Nakamoto. Any change in Bitcoin takes a consensus through real workload, be it electricity or brainpower (miners, programmers, all-in-one). Within this sense, the Bitcoin governance model is comparable to a democratic system with assessments and amounts. Miners are like the professional branch of the federal government, coping with day-to-day functions and enforcing guidelines; client programmers are like the legislative branch, enacting and transferring new laws and regulations; and (full-node customer) users are the judiciary, making certain the other two branches do not do anything unconstitutional. So it is not really a blockchain, it isn’t an encrypted digital personal, PoW is one of the biggest innovations of bitcoin.
Send me a phrase which i often say, (the very first thing to do is to laugh at the actual teacher said in my own impression.).
Long bitcoin,brief the world.
The Chinese language translation is quite awkward, that is, long bitcoin and short the world. I don’t believe this is great, because we don’t want the world to maintain real chaos. Perhaps a better translation is to say that the world is not broken, Bitcoin is not standing. Broken means that the world will always crack at some point because of the lack of consensus in human society, and Bitcoin, a simple but robust, stable but resilient creature, can thrive in this crack.
Look forward to the golden age of Bitcoin.
See that the students here are really in love, and here are the eggs for the 11th anniversary of Bitcoin. My classmate Xiong Yue and I prepared for several months. Out of our love for Bitcoin and having less scientific recognition of Bitcoin in the Chinese language area, we translated and edited an extremely popular intro booklet on Bitcoin overseas, THE TINY Bitcoin Publication, on Bitcoin’s 11th birthday. Browse the hyperlink (go through the original hyperlink): https://xiongxiaoer.gitbook.io/the-little-bitcoin-book/.
This pamphlet ought to be the most easy-to-understand Bitcoin science available today. After reading it, you’ll have a macro, extensive and objective knowledge of Bitcoin. I love this sentence best in the process of translation.